A Master's Thesis at the University of Basrah Examines the Relationship Between Spot and Future Oil Prices and Their Impact on Oil Markets

A master's thesis at the College of Administration and Economics, University of Basrah, examined the relationship between spot and future oil prices and their impact on oil markets and the Iraqi economy for the period 2004-2024.

The thesis, submitted by student Ayat Muhi Mohsen, aimed to analyze price interactions, the role of future expectations, and the impact of fluctuations on public revenues and economic stability, while also discussing the rentier nature of the economy and the need for flexible policies.

The thesis concluded that there is a reciprocal interaction between prices and their susceptibility to expectations, and that the economy remains fragile and underutilizes future indicators.

The thesis recommended reforming public finances, adopting hedging strategies and a sovereign wealth fund, diversifying income sources, enhancing transparency, and supporting early economic analysis.